Category: Editor’s Notebook

The Boeing 737 MAX issue continues to play out in the aviation world. Airlines have extended flight cancellations involving the MAX well into the summer. Upwards into the thousands of flights will ultimately be cancelled. Inconvenience. Lost revenue. But nothing compared to the lives already lost.

Meanwhile, Boeing is feverishly trying to ensure their software fix will eliminate any future problems. U. S. President Donald Trump has also felt it necessary to get involved. He sent a Tweet out that said this: “What do I know about branding, maybe nothing (but I did become President!), but if I were Boeing, I would FIX the Boeing 737 MAX, add some additional great features, & REBRAND the plane with a new name. No product has suffered like this one. But again, what the hell do I know?”

In April, Boeing’s CEO Dennis Muilenberg spoke at the Leadership Conference at the George W. Bush Presidential Center in Dallas., saying: “Our values are at the very core of everything we do. Yet, we know we can always be better, and these recent accidents have intensified our commitment to continuous improvement as we design, build and support the safest airplanes in the sky. That’s our responsibility as a leader in the aerospace industry. That’s what we do at Boeing. We own it.” Subsequent to that though, it seemed as though he was back-pedaling.

Now Boeing is faced with “restoring trust.” At a shareholders meeting April 29, Muilenburg reiterated as he has numerous times that the company is making steady progress toward the software fix and recertification. He faced tough questions at that meeting from angry shareholders. Just prior to that meeting the group Pensions & Investment Research Consultants (PIRC), which advises pension schemes and other investors, recommended Boeing investors oppose the re-election of Muilenburg as chairman and chief executive officer. “There should be a clear division of responsibilities at the head of the company between the running of the board and the executive responsibility for the running of the company’s business,” PIRC said.

It is being reported now, that Boeing’s own test pilots lacked details of the MCAS system as was the case with all pilots operating the aircraft prior to the two fatal accidents of Lion Air and Ethiopian Airlines. It has also been said that Boeing limited the role of its own pilots in the development of those systems, going against longstanding procedures and practices of seeking detailed input from their own pilots.

It has also been confirmed that the 737 MAX fleet was supposed to have a system that would alert the pilots when sensors were reporting conflicting data (one of the causes of the two crashes). However, the alert system would only work if an optional second sensor was installed and some purchasers of the aircraft did not know that or select the second sensor option. A Boeing statement said, “Boeing did not intentionally or otherwise deactivate the disagree alert on its MAX airplanes. The disagree alert was intended to be a standard, stand-alone feature on MAX airplanes. However the disagree alert was not operable on all airplanes because the feature was not activated as intended.”

Clear as mud? Boeing acknowledged malfunctioning sensors led the anti-stalling MCAS system to override pilot’s inputs. And that it was tied to the optional (must select and purchase) feature and wouldn’t work without it.

Where, oh where, was the FAA in all of this? Especially at the time of certification? Let’s review what the role of the FAA is. This is the statement on the FAA’s website regarding their mission: “We’re responsible for the safety of civil aviation…Our major roles include:

• Regulating civil aviation to promote safety
• Encouraging and developing civil aeronautics, including new aviation technology

But when things get too chummy in the real world and people start assuming that one did their part correctly and completely, well we all know that classic old saying about assuming!

For their part, FAA needs to confirm a new administrator ASAP and that new administrator needs to tighten up the ship. Yes, it can be a pain to deal with FAA, but we can’t have the fox watching the hen house. Reminds me of the internet memes “You had one job!” The FAA did have one key job and somewhere along the way, it didn’t get done.

As we went to press the very latest news about this event is Boeing knew about problems with the 737 MAX the year before Lion Air crash and did nothing about them. A new statement from the company indicates a timeline implying some at the company were aware of the problem before finally deciding to act. In addition, some former Boeing engineers and aviation analysts criticized Boeing’s original software design for relying on data from a single AOA sensor, claiming that those devices are vulnerable to defects. Boeing also did not flight test what would happen to the MCAS system if the single AOA sensor failed. Several calls have been made to a Whistleblower hotline in regard to the 737 MAX in recent weeks.

There are 346 people now dead because of these events, oversights and stupidity.

Pilot groups are requesting even more additional simulator training once the fix has been approved, installed and activated. This need may push the return to operation of the MAX beyond the now-predicted August time frame. But with human lives, the public trust and the reputation of Boeing at stake, what’re a few more months?

During the last year, things have gotten heated in the hangars at Southwest. Accusations have been lobbed back and forth between the company, its mechanics and the union that represents them, the Aircraft Mechanics Fraternal Association (AMFA).

A complaint brought to the FAA has been investigated and a letter dated February 26, 2019 sent in response by the FAA states: “The FAA’s Flight Standards Service has completed their investigation of your air carrier safety allegations in case #EWB18644. The investigation substantiated that a violation of an order, regulation or standard of the FAA related to air carrier safety occurred. Accordingly, the FAA is taking appropriate corrective and/or enforcement action. Our office will monitor these actions until complete.”

A complaint to the U. S. Department of Labor includes the following concerns which appear to have been ongoing during the past several years:

A degraded supervisory maintenance culture, which manifests itself in the pressuring of its mechanics to subordinate safety to schedule that “resulted in scores of aircraft being restored to revenue passenger service in an unairworthy condition.”

retaliation against QC Inspectors for reporting “valid findings” of maintenance discrepancies, that were unrelated to program task cards.

Among the larger air carriers, Southwest has the lowest mechanic to aircraft ratio.

The company had flown 44 aircraft in an unairworthy condition as a result of improper repairs to skin panels that undermined the structural integrity of the fuselages. Moreover, Southwest continued to operate the unairworthy aircraft for six months after the FAA had advised the carrier that the aircraft were non-compliant.

Mechanics subject to increasing pressure to refrain from reporting aircraft damage that, under applicable maintenance manuals and federal aviation standards, requires remedial maintenance in order to maintenance airworthiness.

Mechanics were warned that if they continued to report discrepancies relating to cargo liners, they would be disciplined. These cargo liners to prevent a fire originating in a cargo compartment from spreading to other parts of the airplane.

Threatening mechanics with “discipline up to and including termination.”

Threats of a “higher level of scrutiny, discriminatory assignment practices, threats of discipline and, ultimately, suspension without pay,” for writing up discrepancies and bringing non-compliance to the attention of supervisors.

A recent CBS news report highlighted the efforts of Southwest maintenance to resist pressure to ignore aircraft damage and the FAA’s confirmation of the degraded safety culture. After the CBS report, two U. S. Senators called for a congressional investigation.

Eleven days later, a declaration of a State of Operational Emergency was brought by the company. The State of Operational Emergency says, “On Feb. 12, just days after our last negotiations session with AMFA, we experienced an unprecedented number of out-of-service aircraft in four specific maintenance locations despite no change in our maintenance programs, no changes in leadership, and no changes in our policies and procedures.” It goes on to say, “AMFA has a history of work disruptions, and Southwest has two pending lawsuits against the union.”

As a direct result of the emergency declaration, AMFA says sick mechanics who have not had the opportunity to see a doctor will have to work through their illness, vacations, holidays, and shift trades will be disrupted, bid seniority will be dishonored, and technicians will be forced to work mandatory overtime irrespective of their child care obligations or state of fatigue. “Southwest expressly warns that our compliance will be obtained via threat of termination,” says a letter from Bret Oestrich, national director, AMFA.

When asked about the timing of events and the suggestion all is related to ongoing contract negotiations, Oestrich had this to say, “For Southwest’s leadership to connect the airline’s self-declared ‘operational emergency’ to collective bargaining negotiations is simply an attempt to divert attention away from the airline’s safety issues.” Oestrich also says what are not factors in the delays are mechanics calling out sick at an increased level or declining overtime work. “Leading up to the ‘Operational Emergency’,” he says, “attendance and overtime were at normal levels.”

And, as we went to press for this issue, Southwest Airlines filed a lawsuit February 28, against the union that represents their mechanics, AMFA, in an effort to stop what is being called an illegal job action. It is implied that the job action is driving an increased number of aircraft being placed out of service for maintenance reviews of items that have no effect on the safety of flight.

The two entities have been in a heated battle for contract negotiations for months. AMFA has filed complaints with the FAA and Department of Labor alleging failure to follow regulations, pressure to cut corners and threats of stunted career development and job loss if not complied with by the mechanics. Some of these claims have been substantiated during investigations resulting from those claims, as mentioned earlier.

A statement from Southwest says this:

“Today’s action does not alter our dedicated goal of reaching an agreement that benefits our hardworking Maintenance Employees nor does it change the Company’s unwavering commitment to Safety,” said vice president Labor Relations Russell McCrady. “Southwest is–hands down–one of the best companies in the world to work for and we will not stray from our focus on rewarding our mechanics, while we work to shield our Employees and Customers from unnecessary disruptions within the operation.”
This is fixable. But one thing is for sure – it will take much effort on both sides to resolve.

By now, you have heard much about the Lion Air crash on October 29, 2018. But let’s recap. Right after Lion Air Flight 610 crashed after requesting to return to the airport, reports began to be floated about the maintenance of the aircraft. Edward Sirait, the president of the airline, told reporters that the plane had also encountered a technical problem on its previous flight that was subsequently resolved by maintenance technicians. “This aircraft last flew from Denpasar [Bali] to Cengkareng [Jakarta airport] and it was released to fly,” he said. “There was a report about a technical problem but we have worked on the technical issue based on the procedure from the aircraft manufacturer.”

The previous flight, JT43, also encountered “unreliable airspeed indications.” One passenger said the plane dropped suddenly several times during that flight. Another passenger recounted that the aircraft returned to the gate prior to departing. The aircraft was reportedly experiencing unusual engine sounds. Flight JT43 made a distress call and requested to return to the airport as well. The pilot later said the aircraft was flying normally and would not need to return after all.

Shortly after Flight 610 crashed, the Indonesian transport minister suspended Lion Air’s technical director and three other officers due to speculation over the airworthiness of the aircraft. The focus was firmly on maintenance.

Once the flight data recorder was found and data downloaded, it was determined that its engines were running, indicating no explosion or inflight break up in the air, shifting focus to operational issues.

Further research by Indonesia’s National Transportation Safety Committee into the previous flights of that aircraft revealed it had airspeed indicator problems during its final four flights. Inaccurate airspeed readings continued for three days after analyzing the contents of a flight data recorder that was recovered. Each time the aircraft was cleared for takeoff. Again, the focus turned to maintenance.

Then, based on FDR data, it was announced that the anti-stall system engaged after takeoff from Jakarta with the nose being pushed down repeatedly. Quickly after that, Boeing issued a safety warning about flight-control software that might cause pilots problems and could lead to a steep descent of the 737 MAX 8. The FAA added their own directive quickly after. The investigation then started to focus on a software issue that could lead to misinterpretation in the cockpit. The automatic anti-stall system appeared to engage due to erroneous readings from a sensor, the angle of attack indicator, that may have triggered it. The angle of attack sensor measures the position of the wings relative to the flow of air and provides information about a potential stall. In that situation, the 737 MAX has a system that automatically pushes the nose down to prevent a stall.

Maintenance workers, they said, had failed to repair the sensor despite pilots’ reports from a flight the previous day that suggest the anti-stall system engaged improperly on that flight too. The ball was now lobbed back into the maintenance side of the court. The pilot flying the jet the day before the crash, shut down the plane’s anti-stall system, and continued on.

Meanwhile, two pilot unions (and later a third) put forth that the risks of the new safety feature, the Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System (MCAS) system, were not sufficiently explained in their manuals or training. Boeing executives quickly met with the pilot unions at American and Southwest Airlines to allay their concerns about the system.

The initial Indonesian National Transportation Safety Committee report said the aircraft’s “flight computers received false AOA readings that may have triggered MCAS—which would have pushed the nose of the aircraft down and continued to do so as long as the system was active.” MCAS is not part of previous 737 designs, the Boeing memo released shortly after the accident said. The system also was not covered in MAX flight crew operations manual (FCOM) or difference training for 737NG pilots. In that memo from Boeing, it says an erroneous AOA could trigger automatic nose-down pitch-trim. The Boeing memo referred operators to a procedure for runaway pitch trim that includes switching the system off as the proper response.

Maintenance logs show the angle-of-attack sensor was replaced October 27. After penultimate flight, where the pilots flew the plane manually and continued on, maintenance workers reportedly “flushed the left pitot air data module and the static air data module, and cleaned the electrical connector plug for a computer that transmits elevator feel to the control column. The angle-of-attack sensor was not reported to have been examined,” according to a Forbes report. But the issue continued to occur. “At this stage, we cannot determine if [the actions were] correct or not,” Nurcahyo Utomo, head of Indonesia’s national transport safety committee, said at a news conference.

It is never a good idea to second guess an investigation in progress. But some clear problems have already been uncovered. Many things must go wrong to result in an event of this magnitude. Mistakes were made. However, if the system had been fully explained to the crew, if they had been trained on its implications and recovery in a malfunctioning scenario, and if the maintenance crews had been able to troubleshoot the angle of attack sensor problem the first time the discrepancy was written up, this tragedy could have been avoided.

Adapting to new ideas and thinking is hard but we must do it. For all of us in the aviation maintenance industry, we must not only embrace change, but anticipate it, and be ready to react when it is occurring. Otherwise, our businesses will not survive.

Times are good right now, But, as someone who has seen the cycles of aviation during the past three decades, a caution. Do not be lulled into thinking the good times will last forever. Sure, ride the wave. Enjoy it. But if you are wise, you will be thinking and planning for when the downturn comes. Saving money, hiring for the good times with an eye not to overdo it and keeping a keen eye towards new technologies that can disrupt the old ways will serve your business well.

Are there any predictions on what the new technologies that will disrupt our industry will be? What do you think will be the unexpected game changer in the maintenance world? Maybe it is already right in front of our eyes and we just aren’t seeing it yet. For those of us in the U. S. and some of the rest of the world, do you remember when a cab had to be called for an early morning ride to the airport to catch a flight or a late-night ride home on New Year’s Eve? It could be stressful – waiting and waiting for the cab to show up, if it did. Forget about getting a cab on New Year’s Eve. The taxi industry was a mess. Then came Uber and Lyft. Those companies radically changed the paradigm of catching a ride here in the U. S. I think they are still working out some kinks in the rest of the world, but here, Uber and Lyft have turned the cab industry on its head.

What will make that kind of radical shift in our industry? Perhaps it will be Big Data. Much talked about. Much worried about. Much maligned as a possible evil force. The question of who owns the data is the first thing everyone still asks at conferences and in interviews about it. But we must get over that fear. Big Data will be a part of our industry and we need to learn to love it. Whatever worries and concerns exist about it need to be addressed to the level that everyone is confident and then we need to move on and flourish in the Big Data world.

The digital transformation and disruption are happening right before our eyes. Predictive maintenance and optimization of aircraft systems will continue to evolve and become better. Connectivity artificial intelligence, big data analytics, cloud, IoT, cybersecurity, augmented reality and blockchain…if you don’t know what these things are and how they can impact the maintenance of aircraft, you are already behind the power curve. Learn more about Big Data and how it is impacting maintenance in our Big Data story on page 38.

Also in this issue, we look at engine MRO throughout the globe. Engine MRO constitutes the largest part of MRO spend in our industry. Learn about the ways engine MRO providers are vying for business with new partnerships, programs and locations. Our engine MRO story begins on page 16.

New advances in digitization and automation find their ways into the cockpit quickly and often first. Boeing has introduced RouteSync in an effort to automate the predeparture sequence for airlines and reduce errors. With the click of a button, a route can be uploaded to the FMS. I visited the KLM operations control center to learn about it. That story is on page 25. Just think of the ways a similarly designed system could work for maintainers in the hangar.

“Connectivity big data, IoT, cybersecurity, augmented reality and blockchain…if you don’t know what these things are, you are already behind the power curve.”

I also visited a growing MRO, Flying Colours. The company is expanding and finding ways to bring the collective knowledge of the automobile industry into their hangars to help streamline work and add scheduling consistency. After speaking with Dave Stewart, who was brought in to champion this effort, I saw that change can be made and with the support of technicians who are tired of the “we’ve always done it that way” mentality. Find out more on page 46.

And how’s this for disruption. The new FAA Reauthorization Act “includes a provision that could pose a thorny issue for Americans, in that it offers an opportunity for the FAA to potentially side-step traditional rulemaking processes in favor of acceptance of foreign rules.” Mind blown. Find out more from our legal expert, Jason Dickstein in his Legal Spin column entitled, “Accepting Foreign Airworthiness Directives – A More Dramatic Change Than It Might Appear.”

Lastly, we hope you will take a listen to our first sponsored podcast that will be on our website by the time this hits mailboxes. We talked with Matt Mruk, director of business development with Proto Industrial Tools to learn about their aerospace compliance standards, commitment to safety and some of the cool products that can help maintainers do their jobs to the highest level. More info about this episode on page 37. We hope you will take a listen and please stay tuned for more regular podcasts coming from Aviation Maintenance Magazine soon.

Hope you enjoy the issue and may it inspire you to think about, and perhaps even create, the next wave of disruption for aviation maintenance.

The parent company of Aviation Maintenance Magazine, Aerospace & Security Media, will once again be hosting their annual conference in Munich, Germany on March 12 and 13, 2019. Only this coming year, the event is expanding to include three distinct events.

Avionics-Expo, established more than ten years ago, will continue to look at avionics programs including how an estimated $120 billion will be spent on air transportation systems transformation in the next 10 years and the avionics needs of aircraft operators to deal with the modernization and harmonization across the world.

Connected Aircraft Europe will be an inaugural event alongside Avionics-Expo and aims to add new dimensions to the established connectivity themes of IFC and IFEC – by including AI, VR, IoT, Cybersecurity, Blockchain, Flight Tracking, Flight Operations and MRO applications. Crucial to airline operators looking to stay on top of the latest information and technology to protect their connected aircraft.

And the third co-located event is Aerospace Testing Expo. In this second-year event, both manufacturing and MRO test equipment, strategies, processes and best practices will be discussed. The event will also discuss the latest regulations, challenges, technological developments and systems that affect the design and construction of aircraft, whether civil or military, fixed-wing or rotary, or even rocket/space sectors. It will also look at the inspection of aircraft in the MRO environment.

These three co-located events will foster an environment for an organic cross-flow of visitors from airlines and manufacturers. There will be workshops, certified training and an exhibition floor full of the latest technology in these three arenas.

The location in Munich, Germany allows access to airline professionals from all over the world. Munich is full of historic and beautiful sights. It is a major center for art, technology, finance, culture, innovation, business and tourism. Quite simply, perfect for bringing family along so they can also enjoy the beautiful Bavarian countryside and perhaps stay a few extra days and slip across the border into Austria, the Czech Republic or head up into the Alps.

Our call for papers for the Aerospace Testing Expo is open now and we ask those involved in this sector to submit their abstracts to me directly at my email address, jfinnegan@avm-mag.com with “Aerospace Testing Expo Call for Papers” in the subject line. We are looking for test engineers, manufacturing certification and test professionals, quality control engineers, project management professionals, NDT professionals and equipment makers, as well as those involved in test systems, avionics testing, corrosion testing, aerospace coatings, aerospace composites, structural testing, vibration testing, fatigue testing and wind tunnel testing. Please submit as soon as possible (by October 25, 2018) for consideration to be added to our line-up of speakers.

Now let me direct your attention to the issue in your hands. We have several fascinating stories for you. First, find our cover story, Tools and Tech for Hangar Pros and MROs, on page 38. We sought out interesting, unique tools to highlight in our product roundup of tools and safety equipment. On the cover, check out the Coolture Cooling Vest. This is a personal, wearable cooling device that helps workers, who are exposed to the elements on the ramp or in hangars that are not climate controlled, maintain their body temperature. With MROs trying to improve efficiencies even as the mechanic shortage bubbles up, having a worker pass out from heat exhaustion or worse, heat stroke, will set you back. This reasonably priced vest could be the solution to heat-related issues. Also look for interesting updates from ProtoTools, Grypmat, Lighthouse Safety, AllProtect, SureFire (EarPro), TriSoft, Eidos, Tork Wipes, Human Hoist, Latchways, Mototok, Lock N Climb, and 8tree.

Next, we continue our look at the vigorous Western European MRO market in Part II of our European MRO story. Industry experts Richard Brown from ICF and Marcel Versteeg, owner of VZM Management Services, offer insights into the times. We spoke with many of the players in the area as well, to see what their latest offerings include and to gain their unique eye on the market. Of particular interest to me was Mário Lobato de Faria, TAP Maintenance & Engineering’s chief technical officer’s sage advice on the next generation of technical workers.

Our last feature takes a look at specialized training for maintainers. One of Steven Covey’s habits in “The Seven Habits of Highly Effective People” is called “Sharpening the Saw,” and is all about continuous improvement. As aircraft maintenance becomes more technical, increased training in specialized areas will help differentiate MROs and provide improved services for their customers. We spoke to Eric Henry at Applied Technical Services (ATS); Michael Hoke, president of ABARIS Training; Monarch’s head of Learning and Development, Dean Giles, and Brian Goodsite at FlightSafety Int’l. Learn about the latest specialized training being offered to keep the “saw sharpened.”

Enjoy the issue and we look forward to seeing you in Munich in March!

We are in a time of great change, in the world and in our industry. Tempting though it may be, I’ll not talk about all the changes in the world and stick to our industry. We are in a transition period between the old way and the new way. It is an exciting time. And we have to pick up the ball and run.

I’m of course talking about the digitization of aircraft, connectivity including Ka- or Ku-band, inflight entertainment, Big Data, trend monitoring, predictive maintenance, training and even electronic signatures and documentation and how all of that is impacting aviation maintenance. The technology that we have at our finger tips today would astound Charles Taylor and his colleagues, the Wright Brothers.

In addition to the miracle of flight that allows passengers to “sit in a chair in a metal tube hurtling through the atmosphere,” incredible advances also allow us to communicate with that aircraft and those passengers in numerous ways. Work and entertainment happens as a matter of course aboard those aircraft in the passenger cabin with Internet access, live TV, multiple movie options, games and more. And when denied those luxuries passengers often feel inconvenienced. Up in the cockpit we have navigation systems, ACARS, and sensors throughout the aircraft offering condition monitoring, if not in real time yet, it will be coming soon.

But more than simply nav and IFE, aircraft today are virtual flying computers. We have covered and talked about these technologies here for years, but the time is now. We need to leverage those technologies right now, as quickly as possible. There is no time to waste anymore wondering if all this is good or bad, necessary or not, overkill or too expensive. Technology has spoken – it is ready. We must now embrace it. Like it or not, aircraft today have the ability to produce half a terabyte of data every flight. Now we must leverage that to the good.

In the long run, these technologies are going to improve safety and save operators money. Aircraft operation and maintenance go hand in hand. This technology and the data it produces are going to improve safety and reduce operational costs, especially for maintenance. We have to start planning for the day when aircraft maintenance consists of a simple software download (it is happening in many systems already).

As we move towards this all-connected world, monitoring aircraft systems will provide real-time data so time is not wasted on multiple physical and visual checks by teams of people. One person looking at data will determine whether the brakes need to be changed or whether those brakes are wearing evenly, saving time and money. This type of monitoring will allow for better planning and staging of parts at crucial times and locations.

Yes, we will always need sheet metal workers and those who can tear down an engine and put it back together, but going forward, we also need to acknowledge that there will be less of that and more software downloads, debugging computer systems, coding and the like.

Training must keep pace. We need to integrate these types of technologies into the training of our new generation of maintainers. Perhaps adding that kind of training would help to entice young, tech savvy minds into our field of work. Take a look at the hackathon story on page 10 of our Intelligence section. WestJet held the event, “a sprint-like event that computer programmers and software developers used to collaborate and create solutions” in their hangar. We need more of this type of creative, thought-provoking training and challenges in our world.

We need to keep pushing ahead and demanding the type of training our industry needs to keep pace with technology. Maybe a third rating is called for that covers connectivity, computer systems and data as they relate to aircraft maintenance, in addition to Airframe and Powerplant certificates.

We have some great stories this month to help you keep up with the happenings in our business. First, our cover story, page 30, addresses the military maintenance world’s need to find and retain mechanics to help maintain the safety and security of our world. Find out if they are having the same challenges as the civilian world in finding the next generation of aircraft mechanics.

We take a look, as we do every year at the MRO market in Europe. The area is thriving and growing so much we had to break our story into two parts. In this issue we start with a look at Eastern Europe and that story starts on page 16.

After the Southwest Airlines uncontained engine failure and subsequent inspections, we thought it would be a good time to look at non-destructive inspection technologies such as borescopes, eddy current, ultrasonic, liquid penetrant dye and magnetic particle tests, to see what developments are happening there. That piece starts on page 22.

We also have some interesting info on wiring on page 38 and grease on page 40. Finally, Jason Dickstein addresses electronics records and signatures, a bane of our industry for years, in his Legal Spin column. He offers clear guidance on use of these technologies and the background on why it is such a hard mountain to climb on page 41.

Enjoy your summer everyone – hope to see you at hackathon soon!

Every year experts release their thoughts on what the aviation industry, and our segment of it, will do during the coming years. As we have seen time and time again, sometimes they are right. And sometimes they are not.

There is always a chance for an unpredictable event such as a terrorist attack, a worldwide health scare or an economic downturn. Given that these things can occur and cannot be predicted, let’s take a look at what a couple of these reports say will happen in the coming years. Let’s start with the annual FAA Forecast released in March. Then let’s put it together with a couple of other prescient outlooks.

The 2018 FAA forecast calls for slightly slower U.S. carrier passenger growth over the next 20 years to average 1.9 percent per year. But passenger growth will continue into 2018, as the FAA report says, “spurred on by favorable economic conditions in the U.S. and the world.” They are predicting oil prices to rise to $51/barrel in 2018. Furthermore, the forecast assumes they will increase thereafter to exceed $100/barrel by 2030. “Over the long term, we see a competitive and profitable aviation industry,” the report says (see more on airline service and support from Rich Hopf, Director of Airlines, BAE Systems on page 20).

As for the GA market space, FAA predicts the active general aviation fleet will remain stable through 2038. “The long-term outlook for general aviation is stable to optimistic,” the report says, but outlines that growth at the high-end will “offset continuing retirements at the traditional low end of the segment.” (See more from Derek Zimmerman, President Gulfstream Aerospace Services on page 44, Jim Swehla, Co-founder/EVP Sales and Marketing, West Star Aviation on page 50 and Todd Duncan, Chairman of Duncan Aviation on page 45). A final key figure from the report is that the U. S. civil aviation maintenance industry employs about 279,000 workers with most of those working in the MRO segment.

FAA’s forecast calls for growth. Couple that growth with record airline profits last year and things look rosy.

Consultancy firm CAVOK and the Aeronautical Repair Station Association (ARSA) made a collaborative forecast which says there are some risks on the horizon. Strained capacity, higher costs and pent-up demand may lead to higher supplier rates and to workers seeking higher wages.

This report predicts a shortfall of maintenance workers by 2022 as a result of the retirement of baby boomers and the lack of interest in the job among millennials. This will be particularly evident in mature economies like North America. “This shortage could produce problems for the aviation industry,” the CAVOK/ARSA report says.

The commercial air transport MRO market is growing. The CAVOK/ARSA report forecasts 3.8 percent growth for five years and then 4.5 percent yearly growth between 2023 and 2028 (see more of ARSA’s Executive Director, Sarah MacLeod’s thoughts on page 21). We used to talk about consolidation in our industry saying there was too much capacity. But this report is now looking at mergers and acquisitions as more likely and a way to handle the growth. We have already seen some of this taking place. For example, the StandardAero purchase of Vector Aerospace (see more comments from StandardAero’s CEO Russell Ford on page 16), AAR’s purchase of Premier (see more from AAR’s Brian Sartain, SVP of Repair & Engineering on page 18) and Chinese firm HNA’s purchase of SR Technics, leaving fewer but larger companies.

Also called out in their forecast is the larger role the OEMs are playing. Boeing, Airbus and the engine manufacturers are all zeroing in on the aftermarket as a way to hold on to the values of their products (see more from Pratt & Whitney’s VP, Aftermarket Operations, Joe Sylvestro on page 17 and Leo Koppers, SVP MRO, MTU Maintenance also on page 17).

This is happening right now with Boeing Global Services recently announcing orders valued at more than $900 million in February (see more of what BGS CEO Stan Deal has to say on page 15). OEM involvement in the aftermarket and competition with the MROs of the world has never been tame. Watch this space for even more cutthroat competition.

One of my favorite forecasts comes from VZM Management Services led by industry veteran and expert, Marcel Versteeg. “The global Mainliner MRO market will grow around three percent in coming years – Middle East and Asia-Pacific will continue to show the highest growth rates,” the report says. VZM says the growing cargo market and need to replace aging fleets will increase demand for P2F conversions.

They also predict labor shortages becoming evident worldwide. But, Versteeg says, efficiency improvements and technology can help to reduce labor shortages. “Independent engine MRO service providers are strengthening their position in the market by offering comprehensive service packages,” VZM says (see more of what Neil Book, President/CEO of JSSI has to say on page 46).

Lastly, the Boeing Technician Outlook says, “global fleet growth will continue to drive a strong demand for technicians to repair and maintain the airplanes. Technology will drive the need for those who can work with advanced avionics, composites and digital troubleshooting, (see more from Gavin Gallogly, President Mitchell Aircraft on page 43). The report says 648,000 mechanics will be needed worldwide through the period ending in 2036. Hold on. It’s going to be an interesting ride.

What sparked your interest in fixing airplanes or aviation in general? I’m sure there was a moment when something clicked, and you thought, “That is what I want to do!”

Maybe you were screened for aptitude in the military and directed to aircraft maintenance. Perhaps you read a book about airplanes and thought, “I want to build one of those someday.” Maybe you saw somewhere that Lindbergh’s first words when he landed at Le Bourget were, “Is there a mechanic here?” Or was it Joe Patroni, the character from the movie Airport saying that a 707 can do everything but read that inspired you to head into this field?

Could have been any of those things but more than likely, I bet there was someone in your life who already worked in the aviation maintenance arena and encouraged you to become an A&P or to get into the field in some way. Most of us who get into aviation started out doing it because we had someone encourage us to do so.

For me, it was my father. When I read a book about aviation and flying, I told him about it and that I thought it would be amazing to learn to fly. Surprisingly, his response was, “Well we can’t do that sitting the living room – let’s go to the airport!” l took a Cessna discovery flight and was hooked. But, if he hadn’t been receptive to my request, he easily could have squashed my budding interest. After that, he continued to encourage me. When it came time to look at colleges, we researched options with aviation programs and flight training together, finally settling on Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University.

Once there, I had instructors that took an interest, continuing to encourage me to push a little harder, study a little longer, get the best grades I could and join campus clubs like the school newspaper. So, mentoring continued for me throughout my time there.

We need more of this in the maintenance arena. I encourage all of you to reach out to youngsters in grade school, middle school, high school while they are still formulating their ideas about what they want to do with their lives. Spark their interest in aviation. If you know a gifted youngster who shows an aptitude for fixing things or one who is constantly taking apart and putting back together their toys, suggest looking into aviation maintenance as a career path.

“I’m giving all of our readers this mandate. Help a kid find a passion for aviation maintenance. Mentor a youngster by bringing them to the airport, to the hangar and showing them what you do. Plant the seed of a life time of challenges in aviation.”

We will need all the help we can get in the coming years. Retirements loom and the industry continues to grow. Jobs in the tech industry may look attractive to kids but there is so much new technology in our industry, that we must also look at potential workers differently. Perhaps the ideal candidate not only likes to take apart and put back together but also writes code. Perhaps the ideal candidate not only likes fixing things but also has a knack for computer technology.

With more avionics equipment, big data, downloadable info and tech in our world, maybe we need to grab some of the kids that are sitting at home creating games so we have their fearless love of all things digital being integrated into our workforce.

Where can you find someone to mentor? Start with your kids, of course, if they are still young enough and undecided about a career path. But branch out to neighbors, Boy and Girl Scout troops, career days at elementary schools, Big Brother/Big Sisters, 4-H organizations, kids in foster care and other places where there are eager, interested kids yearning for input from someone they respect and trust. I guarantee it will be rewarding beyond words to help someone in this way.

I’m giving all of our readers this mandate. Help a kid find a passion for aviation maintenance. Mentor a youngster by bringing them to the airport, to the hangar and showing them what you do. Plant the seed of a lifetime of challenges and adventures in aviation. It’s a win-win.

Last month I wrote here about the looming or actual shortage of maintenance personnel. I have heard from a number of businesses and readers confirming there is an issue, industry-wide. Not yet a crisis but still problematic. Thank you for your input.

Let me mention that there were a number of people from our industry that had been laid off in years past. I know of several that struggled to find work in the aviation maintenance business suitable to their knowledge and level of achievement.

Now the shortage looms. As businesses struggle to find workers, please don’t overlook those that might be over 40 or those that have been out of the maintenance work force for a time. Let’s rehire all those that may be out of the industry not by choice but by circumstance. Make searching for and hiring those folks part of the overall strategy of finding enough of the right fit (which includes experience, qualifications and work ethics) for your maintenance professionals. There are still plenty left and they can be found.

In our annual Giants feature, AAR’s Danny Kleiman says this about the worker shortage: “The biggest challenges continue to be a significant shortage in trained and experienced resources to work on aircraft, as well as the cyclic nature of airframe maintenance work.” Haeco’s Jim Sokol agrees saying, “our biggest challenge is finding qualified people and retaining them.”

Our industry is not alone. The unemployment rate has continued to tick down steadily in recent years and that trend continues. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) as the unemployment rate has been decreasing, the number of job openings has been increasing, creating huge talent shortages for companies in many different fields. The BLS also says the United States will need 3 million more workers in the next ten years to fill low-skilled jobs so that the country will achieve economic growth. The Society for Human Resource Management says many employers are finding it difficult to find those qualified candidates I hear many of you struggling to find.

Other industries such as the medical field, science and math, engineering, and skilled labor like machinists, welders, plumbers, electricians and carpenters are also experiencing difficulty finding qualified workers.

A report by Global Risk Insights states, “The problem is that most companies are needing workers with middle skills that include technical knowledge and a better-than-average understanding of the tools and machines they will operate while also involving a high degree of problem-solving skills.” This is exactly what I am hearing from those of you in the trenches dealing with hiring.

And as we have been talking about for years, we, as an industry, need to be more proactive in our efforts to recruit, train, and retain the excellent caliber of employees that we need. We need to continue to start young, using outreach to junior high and high school students who might not have a clear career path in mind, and lure them into aviation maintenance.

Not every kid today must go to college. More vocational and technical training might be exactly what a young, as yet unfocused, young person needs. Lots of students would prefer the kind of hands on, on the job training that comes with A&P school and internships with companies in our niche. This certainly does not mean that they won’t eventually go to college and earn a degree or two. But in the meantime, they can get a real certification, put it work, earn good money and move forward in life.

If we continually send kids off to college to analyze the fine arts, who will we get to troubleshoot the fault on our jet? Our economy will benefit from that specialized, vocational training and I believe there are many young people today who would thrive in it and would prefer it to college. We just need to make it attractive.

Speaking of money, that is one of the trickiest points, isn’t it? Hourly rates of pay vs. shop rates. How can we justify raising one with out the other? Well, time and trial will tell. If there is a true shortage, then the market will bear these increases.

Diversity is also something we need to do better with in aviation in general. Don’t exclude whole populations just because they are different from what has been typical in the industry for years. Women and minorities like airplanes, too. And trust me, airplanes cannot tell the gender or skin color of someone repairing them.

I wish you all luck in finding enough of the right employees to do the complex, challenging and something frustrating work of keeping the fleets of our world safely flying.